In the days leading up to the Lunar New Year, the stamp market remained highly active, with rabbit-themed stamps taking center stage. The strong demand for these collectibles helped various other themes rebound and set a positive tone for the stamp market in the previous year.
This year, the "Golden Monkey" stamp has been a hot topic, with some collectors rushing to buy it at prices reaching 20,000 yuan. Looking back at 2010, the stamp market was nothing short of impressive, with prices consistently rising. The "Golden Monkey" became the standout piece, hitting a peak of 11,000 yuan—up from its lowest price of just 8 cents. Over 13 years, this represented an astronomical increase of 137,499%. Market experts predicted that the "Golden Monkey" could soon surpass 20,000 yuan in 2011.
Some stamp collectors believe that the "Golden Monkey" reflects the investment climate of the postal market: theme is king, quantity is queen, and consumer demand is emperor.
While some stamps have reached record highs, many others haven’t yet returned to their historical peaks. For example, the "Golden Monkey" remains at 11,000 yuan, while the "Silk Small Edition" hit a high of 326 yuan, compared to its low of 36 yuan. Similarly, the "Step-by-Step Map" reached 35 yuan, which is still higher than its lowest point. However, many other stamps are still below their historical highs. The "Olympic Stickers," for instance, once reached 210 yuan, but now trade at 91.5 yuan. The "Gulangyu Small Edition" is currently priced at 290 yuan, down from its peak of 365 yuan. Other examples include the "Daishan Small Edition" and "Lily Small Version," both of which are trading at 55 yuan, far below their historical highs.
According to incomplete data, the gap between historical highs and lows is often due to limited supply. For example, the "Ancient Bridge" stamp reached 687 yuan at its peak, but dropped to as low as 19.5 yuan, creating a difference of 667.5 yuan. The "Olympic Stickers" also saw a significant swing, peaking at 210 yuan and falling to 16.5 yuan, a difference of 193.5 yuan. Currently, the price is 91.5 yuan, leaving a gap of 118.5 yuan from its peak.
Price fluctuations in certain stamps can lead to arbitrage opportunities. A stamp dealer noted that many stamps don’t strictly follow the "old and rare" standard, making them more sensitive to external factors rather than internal ones like rarity or time. As a result, traders advise collectors to avoid highly volatile stamps.
However, some investors believe that "old and rare" stamps will steadily appreciate over time, offering low-risk, high-reward investments. They argue that volatile stamps may present more opportunities for those with higher risk tolerance, especially in the short or medium term. Market participants remain optimistic about the performance of such stamps in 2011.
That said, they recommend that beginners avoid high-risk stamps and instead focus on those with strong themes, limited circulation, and manageable inventory levels. This approach helps reduce uncertainty and increases the chances of long-term gains.
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