Physical retail will not be replaced by online shopping

At the 2011 China Innovation Consumer Hotspot High-end Forum held recently, Wanda Group Chairman Wang Jianlin, Lenovo Chairman Liu Chuanzhi, CEIBS Professor Xu Xiaonian and other industry elites delivered speeches at the forum.

Wang Jianlin:

Online shopping will not replace physical terminals. According to the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, the Chinese consumer market will have to double within five years, from 15 trillion yuan to 30 trillion yuan, and the average annual growth rate will reach 15%. Wang Jianlin mentioned that high-speed consumption growth should rely on “innovative consumer hotspots.” From the perspective of department stores, Wang Jianlin believes that it is necessary to develop experience-based consumption, that is, consumer-oriented consumption in commercial facilities. Movies, video games, fitness, dining, etc.

In view of the current popularity of online shopping and the dramatic increase in online spending, Wang Jianlin believes that online shopping does develop rapidly, but the “net purchase alternative terminal” argument cannot be realized.

“In the United States 20 years ago, the popularity of online shopping did make a change in the end market, but online shopping will never replace the terminal.” Wang Jianlin said that the total amount of online shopping is indeed expanding, but the total amount of the terminal market is also expanding. In terms of proportion, the proportion of online shopping has not improved too much, and physical shopping is still slightly better.

Talking about the future development trend of the business center, Wang Jianlin said that expanding the proportion of experiential consumption in the business center is a proper measure. “In the future, experiential consumption will account for more than 50% of Wanda's commercial projects. The proportion of catering industry may exceed 30%, or even continue to increase. Wanda began to be the most popular food and beverage store survey report last year. Of the 30 most popular food and beverage outlets in the region, Wanda plans to introduce at least 20 of them.”

Liu Chuanzhi:

Strengthening international cooperation and consumption not only links the rest of the world, but also affects all walks of life. In Liu’s view, the Chinese economy will gradually shift to consumption in the future, which will not only help increase the interconnection between China and other countries in the world, but also usher in new business opportunities for all walks of life.

Liu Chuanzhi believes that through the international cooperation between enterprises, China can not only expand the consumer market further, but also improve the quality of the consumer market, exchange ideas and learn from each other. And companies that take the Chinese market as a foundation and a foothold to enter the world market will welcome even greater development.

Liu Chuanzhi also brought some sales figures of Lenovo Group. Taking Legend Holdings as an example, Lenovo sold 4 million computers in 2004, which accounted for 28% of the market; in 2010, sales volume increased more than three times, reaching 18 million units, accounting for The proportion of market share only rose slightly by 2% to 30%. “In six years, the size of China’s consumer market has doubled. This “cake” has become larger, and these extra computers have mainly been sold to cities and townships in the second and third grades, indicating that these markets are still pregnant with huge amounts of money. Potential," Liu Chuanzhi said.

Another piece of data reflects the tremendous business opportunities that international cooperation brings to companies. In 2004, Lenovo Group achieved sales of 2.9 billion yuan in China and has not yet entered the global market. In 2010, Lenovo Group not only achieved sales of 10 billion yuan in the Chinese market, but also achieved sales of 21.6 billion yuan in other markets worldwide. Liu Chuanzhi believes that such a large amount of sales stems from Lenovo’s acquisition of IBM. "Because of the acquisition of IBM's PC business, we have Think Pad to be able to open the international market so quickly."

Xiaonian:

Since the economic model began to transform from the 1980s to the present, the proportion of household consumption as a percentage of GDP has been declining from 50% to 33%. Xu Xiaonian believes that this shows that China's economy is immersed in the misunderstanding of "growing for growth." It overestimates the growth of GDP figures and ignores the increase in public living standards, which makes the high growth of the Chinese economy lose its significance.

In pursuit of economic growth, the Chinese economy has always been driven by investment. Overcapacity caused by excessive investment can only be absorbed by overseas markets. With the recession of the European and American economies, high investment has become increasingly unsustainable. Therefore, in the future, China's driving force for economic growth should shift from investment to consumption.

Xu Xiaonian believes that the transition from investment to consumption is not simple, and he also gave three suggestions. Xu Xiaonian believes that, first, the performance evaluation system should be transformed from GDP appraisal to "popular satisfaction" appraisal; Second, increase the share of the people in the national income distribution; Third, deregulation, the establishment of the development factor market, so that the price signal to give full play to Role, adjust the ratio of consumption and investment.

In addition, Xu Xiaonian thinks that the national income distribution mechanism should make adjustments, and the emphasis on “fairness” should not begin with secondary distribution, but should be reflected from one allocation. "In a distribution process, we should break the monopoly of natural resources and markets, reduce controls, curb rent-seeking, and cancel preferential policies," said Xu Xiaonian. (Author: Chong Xiaomeng)