Australia is now the world’s third-largest cotton exporter, and the industry has reported that almost all of its 2009/10 cotton harvest has already been sold due to a sharp rise in global demand. China remains the largest consumer, while global cotton inventories are at their tightest in over two decades.
With the inventory-to-consumption ratio dropping to its lowest level since 1989/90, cotton prices have been on a steady upward trend. The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has forecasted a potential 15% increase in global cotton prices for the 2010/11 season.
This year alone, the ICE U.S. Futures Cotton benchmark December contract has surged by 17%, reflecting growing concerns about supply shortages. Industry insiders suggest that Australian cotton stocks will be extremely low by the end of this month, adding to the pressure on global markets.
The 2009/10 Australian cotton production, which spans from July to June, is now estimated at 1.8 million bales—up from the earlier projection of 1.6 million bales. This increase highlights improved yields and favorable growing conditions.
Traditionally, Australia exports cotton primarily to China and Indonesia, but in recent months, new markets such as Bangladesh have also started purchasing significant volumes. This diversification could help stabilize export flows amid rising global demand.
As supply constraints continue to tighten and prices climb, the outlook for the global cotton market remains uncertain, with traders and producers closely watching for any signs of relief or further volatility.
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