Precious metals: Trump made a shocking remark on the trade war. Gold closed higher on Friday but fell more than 0.5% in a week.
Last Friday (March 2), the threat of the global trade war caused the dollar to fall further, which gave rise to the market's safe-haven demand and the gold volatility. At the close, the main contract price of COMEX gold futures silver futures rose 0.27% to 16.535 US dollars / ounce. From the whole week, gold futures prices fell by 0.51%, while silver futures rose by 0.27%.
US President Trump’s sudden decision to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum on Thursday made investors worry that other countries will retaliate, dragging the dollar down from a six-week high, and gold went out after falling to a low of $1303.6 per ounce that day. V-shaped reversal. On Friday, Trump once again published a tweet saying that when a country (the United States) loses billions of dollars in its trade with countries, the "trade war is good" and it is easier to win. According to Politico, the US political media, Cohen, the chief economic adviser of the White House, is considering resigning because he cannot discourage President Trump from increasing tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at Bank of America Wealth Management, said:
“The gold market sees tariffs as a more dovish scenario: weaker economic growth, lower real interest rates and a weaker dollar.â€
Currently, the market is still concerned about the response of other countries to US trade policy. Reuters quoted sources as saying that the EU is considering that if the United States is willing to impose global tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, the EU will impose a 25% import tariff on US goods valued at about $3.5 billion.
In addition, investors are still digesting Fed Chairman Powell’s second round of hearings before Congress on Thursday. The new Fed’s chairman weakened his hawkish stance on Tuesday’s testimony. Moreover, Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen pointed out that investors are worried that if the global trade war becomes a reality, it will promote inflation and slow down growth, thus disrupting the Fed's plan to raise interest rates and reducing the possibility of faster tightening.
At present, investors are considering the current low price level of gold as a better buying opportunity. Reuters-tracked gold ETF positions have increased by nearly 17 tons since mid-February, an increase of 1%. From a technical perspective, gold's holding of the 100-day moving average of $1,300 is also a positive sign, which is an important psychological barrier for investors. Analysts at Scotiabank said that the recent resistance of gold is near the 50-day moving average of $1324.60.
According to the CFTC data, as of the week of February 27, speculators cut their net gold long positions by 12,204 lots to 178,718 lots; silver long positions decreased by 177 lots, short positions increased by 6,651 lots, and net speculative positions were led by long positions. Leading the bears.
Crude oil: oil prices follow the trend of US stocks, reversing the downtrend, investors focus on OPEC and the US shale oil merchants meeting
In the context of the trade war, the US stock market lost its gains on Friday and the Nasdaq rose about 1%. The international oil price also went up. The main contract price of NYMEX US WTI crude oil futures closed up 0.18% to US$61.45/barrel. The main contract price of ICE Brent crude oil futures closed up 0.56% at $64.56 per barrel. However, the US oil weekly fell 3.33%, while oil oil fell 3.93%.
Last Thursday, after Trump announced the decision to impose tariffs, the risk chasing mood subsided, and oil prices followed US stocks lower. Gene McGillian, head of market research at Tradition Energy, pointed out that the risk of trade wars has caused investors to worry that economic growth will not be enough to stimulate demand for crude oil.
However, the rebound in US stocks and the weakening of the US dollar pushed the oil price to rebound on Friday, allowing it to maintain its gains after the drilling data was released. Baker Hughes' data shows that as of the week of March 2, the number of active oil drilling in the United States increased by one to 800, further refreshing the high level since April 2015, and recorded growth for the sixth consecutive week.
In addition, according to Reuters on Sunday, Mohamed al-Hadi, a landowner in the western part of Zintan, Libya, said he closed a section of oil pipeline through all of his land because the pipeline has caused 6 hectares of land pollution. It is reported that the oil pipeline is connected to the El SHarara oilfield, the largest oilfield in Libya.
At present, the focus of oil market investors has turned to OPEC officials meeting with US shale oil producers during the energy conference on Monday. Last week, EIA data showed that US crude oil production hit an all-time high of 10.57 million barrels per day in November last year, and weekly data also showed that the trend is expected to continue.
According to CFTC data, as of February 27, the speculative net long position of crude oil in New York increased by 14,738 lots to 704,104 lots. In the previous two weeks, speculators continued to cut their net long position in New York crude oil.
Foreign exchange market: trade war risk interrupted the dollar's rise, Kuroda's unexpected change, the German team's overall situation has been set
Affected by the risk of trade wars, the US dollar index fell on Friday, falling 0.37% in the day, reported 89.927, once again back below the 90 mark. Overall, the dollar rose by 0.04% last week. In the middle of the week, influenced by strong economic data and the hawkish wording of the Fed’s first round of congressional hearings, the dollar once rose to a few-week high of 90.930. Nomura's macro strategist Bilal Hafeez said the follow-up response of the US dollar to Trump's tariff decision will depend on the response measures taken by other countries. From the position of the position, speculators continue to cut the US dollar multi-position, the net short position increased by 20,754 hands to 161,324 hands.
USD/JPY fell 0.47% to 105.7, the lowest level in more than two years, and fell by 1.08% in a week. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda unexpectedly said on Friday that if inflation reaches the central bank's target in the 2019 fiscal year ending March 2020, the central bank will consider ending the ultra-loose monetary policy. This hawkish view shocked the market and further promoted it. The yen is stronger. In addition, the safe-haven demand triggered by the Trump trade war argument also boosted the yen.
The euro rose 0.55% against the dollar, at 1.2332, a cumulative increase of 0.31% a week. On the weekend, the success of the German cabinet has given the euro a reassurance. According to the German media report, all members of the German Social Democratic Party passed a joint project with Merkel’s coalition party with 66% of the votes. The two parties will form a new government according to the previous agreement. So far, the German marathon-style cabinet process has come to an end since the September 2017 general election. In addition, the Italian election announced the export poll on Monday morning, indicating that no party has obtained the majority of the seats in the parliament, which is expected to produce a suspended parliament.
The pound was up 0.1% against the dollar at 1.3791, but the weekly line was down 1.25%. British Prime Minister Teresa May gave a speech on Friday's Brexit and future economic relations between the UK and the EU, calling for a deep partnership with the EU after Brexit, but this failed to convince investors that the Brexit transition agreement was a nail.
In other currencies, the US dollar against the Swiss franc closed down 0.56% to 0.9370, up 0.04% in a week; the Australian dollar fell 0.04% against the US dollar, at 0.7760, down 0.94% a week; the New Zealand dollar fell 0.25% against the US dollar, at 0.7236, one week It fell by 0.74%.
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