Qatar is abandoned by the global market, perhaps just to please Chinese men's football
This article was first published on the WeChat public account: Moore Financial Select. The content of the article belongs to the author's personal opinion and does not represent the position of Hexun.com. Investors should act accordingly, at their own risk.
Many countries have closed the airspace to Qatar at the same time. It may be normal for everyone, but you will know the map.
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Except for Iran, it’s not going to go out. Is there any benefit to China that is inconvenient to enter and leave?
Think about what sports the general secretary likes? football! The final round of the Chinese Men's World Preliminaries is just to play Qatar away!
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Could it be that the brothers joined forces to help the Chinese men's football team?
The stock market fell
After the break-off incident, the Qatar stock market fell sharply and international oil prices rose sharply.
Affected by this, the international oil price rose upwards. As of press time, the oil price rose to 1.42%, reported at 50.66 US dollars / barrel, US oil rose to 1.20%, reported 48.23 US dollars / barrel.
The break-off incident has exacerbated tensions in the world's largest oil-producing regions, while raising the possibility of supply disruptions in the Middle East, including OPEC members such as Saudi Arabia, Iran and Qatar. International oil prices rose sharply on Monday, rising 1.6%.
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Gold hits a new high in a month and a half
Out of worries about the situation in the Middle East, safe-haven assets rose more than $1,280, hitting $1,282, a one-and-a-half-month high.
Gold rose 0.18% and is now at $1281.38.
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In addition to the Middle East, European and American political uncertainty has once again raised the market's safe-haven demand. The latest position data shows that hedge funds and speculators have doubled their positions for two consecutive weeks.
According to data released by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) last Friday, speculators increased their holdings of 13,959 gold-looking contracts in the week ending last Tuesday. The bearish contracts barely changed, only 48 contracts were added.
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During the week, the net long position of gold rose by 14,000 to 132,000, the highest increase in five weeks.
OPEC production reduction agreement will collapse
Saudi Arabian Energy Minister and Saudi Aramco President Khalid Al-Falih said that Saudi Arabia and Russia support the agreement to reduce crude oil production for one year, until the first quarter of 2018, the two sides agreed that this is the correct solution; and will be on May 25 A decision was made at the meeting.
Not long ago, did the above news still remember? Big Brother has a big brother on the back. As an important oil production area, the Middle East incident triggered investors' close attention to the crude oil market and the OPEC production reduction agreement.
US financial Zero Hedge commented that the incident further increased the external doubts about the stability of OPEC. Although historically, the turmoil in the Middle East usually increases the risk premium of crude oil, given the challenges of the solidarity of OPEC member countries, they will face great uncertainty in the implementation of production cuts, which will theoretically put downward pressure on oil prices. .
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The impact of the Middle East crisis on oil prices in history:
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Crude oil output of OPEC countries:
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Is the diplomatic country really immune from terrorism?
Behind it is actually because of the long-standing problem of standing in the battle for energy. Qatar is nominally neutral and actually favors Iran.
That is to do with the United States, now the United States is not convenient to directly slap you, let the brothers first.
Now the United States just launched the Paris Agreement, causing public anger, and the British Brexit triggered the European integration process. At the same time, European terrorist attacks frequently occurred, and the situation in the Middle East was unstable. North Korea came out from time to time. Only China’s current situation is relatively stable and the people are willing to go.
Maybe after looking back many years, this is another good opportunity for God to make a fortune in the motherland.
Things are actually very simple
The Qatar News Agency published an article on Al Jazeera. The Emir of Qatar said that Iran is a big Islamic country and it is unwise to be hostile to Iran. More importantly, the Qatar Ministry of Foreign Affairs was reported to recall the ambassadors from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Egypt and Kuwait. This kind of big news is of course madly forwarded and spread by the Gulf media.
After only one day, the Qatar News Agency said that it was hacked before, and there was no recall of the ambassador, and that Tamim (Emir of Qatar) did not boast of Iran, and they were all born out of nothing.
However, the statement was not accepted. Saudi Arabia and other countries not only broke off with Qatar, but also removed it from the Arab League. The days after Qatar were not good. This is also a summary of 14 years. After all, because of the Egyptian Brotherhood, Saudi Arabia and other countries have recalled the ambassador. There are still many exiles in the Mu Brotherhood in Qatar, and this group of people, Qatar chose to support and protect, which is completely opposite to Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other countries.
In fact, Qatar itself does not deal with other members of the GCC. In particular, it is not willing to be a Saudi brother. Last time the Gulf countries broke off with Iran and Qatar did not break. It can be said that this situation is a result of years of accumulation.
After all, Saudi Arabia has always treated the Gulf countries as a whole to deal with Iran, and Qatar belongs to the kind that is not very gregarious. This is a bit of a killing of chickens and monkeys. Anyone who dares to go to the Arab countries with Iran and dare to do the right thing with Saudi Arabia is the end of Qatar.
The situation in the Middle East is not divided into two
Especially for Qatar.
As a country with a GDP per capita of more than 90,000 US dollars (only more than 20,000 in Saudi Arabia), Qatar is rich in oil resources, low in domestic unemployment, and stable in the royal regime. There is no interference from elected representatives (such as Kuwait) or strong religious forces (such as Saudi Arabia). ) and highlight Sunni and Shiite contradictions (such as Bahrain). Under the stability of the political situation, Qatar’s domestic Islamic teachings are relatively open to Saudi Arabia (only relative).
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Such a country with a population of about 2 million is rich but weak, and it has its own unique way of survival in the Arab world in the midst of contradictions and turmoil.
In order to strengthen the political presence of Qatar International and curb the intervention of Saudi Arabia, which seeks regional hegemony, for this rich and weak neighboring country, Qatar has long relied on relations with the United States in the Iraq war, the Lebanon-Israel conflict, the Houthi armed forces and the Yemeni government. Contradictions, Darfur and other regional issues have served as mediators and intermediaries for many times, proactively mediating. For the same purpose, Qatar Iran has frequently made good exchanges to balance the influence of Saudi Arabia.
On the other hand, the Muslim Brotherhood, the largest influential government organization in the Arab world, has also profoundly affected the Qatar policy. Religious forces often publicly send news through the famous Al Jazeera TV station. This is also the result of Qatar’s long-term relationship with Mu Brothers.
One is the dictatorship of the Gulf monarchy, one is the Muslim Brotherhood that takes the extreme route, and the United States and Iran, Qatar is such a country that dances at the crossroads.
This balance of foreign policy in exchange for a stable economic development environment in the country.
However, in the Libya civil strife in 2011, in the case of the political collapse of the strongman, the image of the anti-intermediary of Qatar, the presidency of the Arab League, took the initiative to kick out Gaddafi in advance of the Arab League and join the United Arab Emirates and other countries. No-fly zone. After the downfall of the card, it selectively supported extreme religious forces in various factions, which affected Libya's chaos for a long time.
Behind this, in addition to eager for their own international status, there is also the need to exchange support for the growing strength of the Brotherhood.
After Mubarak stepped down in 2012, Mu Brothers won the election victory by relying on religious influence, but then the Egyptian military overthrew the Mursi regime with the support of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and suppressed the Mu brothers. Coupled with the rise of fundamentalist forces in the conflicts in Libya and Syria, the contradictions between the religious extremist line, the civilian line of the Muslim Brotherhood and the dictatorship of Saudi Arabia and other governments are growing.
Qatar’s balance policy is naturally difficult to maintain.
At the beginning of the crisis in Libya, Qatar, which actively interfered, gradually deviated from the middle line and became more and more close to the Muslim Brotherhood. This has caused vigilance in Saudi Arabia and other countries, and it has also made Europe and the United States, which is deeply troubled by extreme Muslim problems, unhappy.
In 2013, the United Arab Emirates arrested a large number of leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt jointly fought against the forces supported by the Libyan Muslim Brotherhood. In the same year, Qatar was pressured to ask some of the leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood to leave the country.
That is why Saudi Arabia said in a statement that because "the Qatari authorities have repeatedly committed crimes over the years", Saudi Arabia believes that it is necessary to "protect its national security from terrorism and extremism."
The Gulf countries gradually split into Qatar supporting the Brotherhood of the Brothers and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates against the Brotherhood. At the final crossroads, Qatar had to seek a balance on a larger level – pulling Iran.
Trump's first visit to select Saudi Arabia, and signed more than 100 billion in the future, the larger 300 billion arms sales giant, indicating the United States' political and military support for Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia, with its arrogance, dared to shake hands and gradually deviated from the Arab League Qatar. This is why a news release triggered several countries to break diplomatic relations with Qatar.
A small country is keen on regional political interference and loses its self-positioning results.
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