Whether the Hong Kong luxury market has survived difficult times
Recently, the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department released the most exciting news in the luxury goods market in the past three years. In October, sales of jewellery, watches and precious gifts in the retail market in Hong Kong fell by 0.1%, almost falling. Most importantly, in the past three years, the monthly performance of this type of sales was better than the overall retail market in Hong Kong for the first time. In addition, the data showing a sharp slowdown in September shows that both the overall retail market and the luxury market in Hong Kong have already passed the most. a difficult time.
In October, the overall sales volume of the Hong Kong retail market recorded a decline of 2.9%. Although it has fallen for 20 consecutive months, it has performed the best in the past 15 months, flat in July of last year. The total retail sales of Hong Kong retail sales was HK$36.1 billion in the month. From January to October, the overall retail market in Hong Kong fell by 8.9%, which was pulled down to double digits. This caused the market's 2016 Hong Kong retail market to lose more than 10%.
In response to the Hong Kong retail market, last week, No Agency founder Tang Xiaotang published a commentary and forecast article "Has the bottom of Hong Kong retail can return to the golden age." The article judged the bottom of the Hong Kong retail market in September and said that the Hong Kong retail market will further improve, but the re-emergence of Hong Kong's 10 years after the implementation of Hong Kong's free travel has been denied.
In response to the October data, Tang Xiaotang said that the Hong Kong retail market performed better than expected in the month, but the luxury sub-category performed better than expected, mainly due to the rise of mainland tourists in the Golden Week. No Agency had expected the Hong Kong hard luxury market to further narrow its decline to 5.0% in October. Tang Xiaotang said that the remarks made by the Hong Kong retail industry during the golden week that “Wang Ding is not prosperous†affected the agency’s forecast and overestimated the expectations of the Hong Kong cosmetics market.
In October, Hong Kong's cosmeceutical market sales recorded another decline, down 1.8% year-on-year, while in the seven months before October, there were six months of growth. In this regard, Tang Xiaotang said that the depreciation of the renminbi is far more profound than expected, not only stimulating local consumption in mainland China but also playing a role in the Hong Kong market. In addition, he said that although the Hong Kong dollar linked to the US dollar is also strong, in the past month, the Chinese government’s foreign exchange control against banks, enterprises and individuals has not been tightened before, and will further shrink the Chinese’s overseas consumption to some extent, even though it has the same for Hong Kong. Impact, but it will be relatively weak, which is also conducive to the promotion of consumption by the mainland consumers in the market.
The Hong Kong market is extremely important for the luxury market. Especially after the free travel and financial crisis, the global luxury market is mainly driven by Chinese consumers. As the most important consumer city, Hong Kong is not only the primary role in stimulating the luxury market, luxury. The marketing role of the products for consumers in mainland China is even more unparalleled. Based on this, Hong Kong's Causeway Bay rent even exceeded New York's Fifth Avenue.
On the occasion of the change of the Chinese government in 2012, the luxury goods market ushered in a major turning point. Since then, for the luxury goods industry, regardless of sales and marketing, the status of the Hong Kong market has declined, especially for three consecutive years. Basic monthly double-digit plunge, few luxury brands have positive results in Hong Kong.
Tang Xiaotang expects that in November, the luxury goods market in Hong Kong will still be difficult to rebound. There may be surprises in the holiday season and the Lunar New Year. The unexpected factors such as the US interest rate hike and the Italian referendum may affect the performance in the first half of next year. It is expected to return to normal in the second half of 2017. .
In addition to the luxury category, the department store category in Hong Kong retail sales fell by 0.8% in October, the apparel category fell by 5.1%, the optical shop category fell by 2.1%, and footwear sales rose by 4.9%. A Hong Kong government spokesman said that the year-on-year decline in retail sales in October was further narrowed, which was roughly in line with the performance of visitors to Hong Kong during the month. In addition, the stability of the job market and the rise in household income have also stimulated consumer sentiment.
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