[Time Review] After the Bogor target period, where is APEC going?

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After the target period of Bogor, what is APEC going?

The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) was established in 1989 and has been operating successfully for nearly three decades. In the past 30 years, APEC has become the most comprehensive, highest-level and most influential economic cooperation organization in the Asia-Pacific region. At the APEC summit held in Bogor, Indonesia in 1994, the famous "Bogor Goals" was proposed, which requires developed members to realize trade and investment liberalization by 2010 before and by developing members. This goal has become APEC organization. Constantly flourishing and promoting the direction of regional economic integration. As the final time limit of the Bogor target approaches, the new development goals of APEC after 2020 will be determined, and the future development path of APEC will be guided, which will become the top priority for APEC's survival, success and failure.

Determination of the objectives of the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area

After the Bogor Goals, where is APEC going? As early as the first decade of the 21st century, APEC member policy makers, participants, and academics have begun discussions on this issue. Mainstream views and policy claims can be summarized into three options.

First, "bogor target plus".

Trade and investment liberalization is the core of APEC's “two-wheel drive” model and the original intention of APEC. However, there is no specific quantitative indicator for the Bogor Goals. There is no clear standard for the test of “evaluating whether to complete the Bogor Goals”. Secondly, there are not many leftovers in 2020, and it is very difficult for developing members to achieve the expected targets as scheduled. Big. Adhering to the Bogor Goals and reaffirming their importance is the consensus reached by the 21 member states of APEC at the 2013 Indonesia Summit. As the birthplace and initial proponent of the Bogor Goals, Indonesia has proposed further modifications to the Bogor Goals, and the new timetable may inject new vitality into the Bogor Goals Plus.

Second, comprehensive (comphrensive) interconnection.

The topics discussed by APEC are becoming more and more general. Non-core issues such as energy cooperation, small and medium-sized town construction, education strategy, and anti-corruption have become the fastest and most significant aspects of cooperation in the past two years. Interconnection, SMEs, and trade facilitation. The global value chain has brought new cooperation power to traditional trade and investment liberalization and economic and technological cooperation. As the original founding member of APEC, Australia has always had a high degree of enthusiasm and positive attitude towards the integration and cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region. Some Australian scholars have proposed that APEC's ultimate goal can be to achieve comprehensive interoperability including trade and investment liberalization, international financial market integration, personnel mobility and cultural cooperation, policy coordination, and infrastructure connectivity. This program and initiative describes the vision of the future development of the APEC region. The high-level and all-round cooperation framework will open up a new development path for APEC economic growth and deep integration.

Third, the Asia Pacific Free Trade Area (FTAAP).

In 2014, the APEC Beijing Conference reached the consensus on promoting the realization of the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Zone Beijing Roadmap. In 2016, the Lima Conference adopted the joint strategic research report of the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Zone. At present, the Asia-Pacific FTA development target is highly accepted among APEC members, and China is the main promoter of this program. Promote the deep integration process in the Asia-Pacific region, adhere to the regional economic cooperation driven by investment and trade liberalization and facilitation, determine the APEC Bogor Goals with the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area, and transform the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area from a vision and an idea into concrete actions as soon as possible. And reform measures to promote consensus among APEC member states is the key to maintaining the vitality of APEC and promoting the long-term development of APEC.

The main challenges and difficulties of the Asia Pacific Free Trade Area target

The determination and implementation of the objectives of the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area will not be completed overnight. The substantive initiation process of the negotiations will start, and there will still be major difficulties in determining the specific road map selection and timetable. It will face institutional, realistic and key national policy influences. Constraints on aspects.

First, the constraints of the institutional framework.

The APEC organization is a consensus-based economic cooperation forum, not a binding international organization. The most distinctive feature of APEC is its flexible approach of “open, gradual, voluntary, and negotiated”. To achieve the ultimate goal of the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area, each member country needs to negotiate the free trade zone trade arrangements and accept binding text terms. This is inconsistent with the basic purposes and principles of APEC. Some scholars and officials of the APEC Secretariat pointed out that if the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area Negotiation Working Group is launched, this mechanism should be parallel to APEC. Otherwise, APEC will be transformed into a regionally similar trade function with WTO. International organizations.

Second, the challenge of reality factors.

As a comprehensive free trade agreement in the region, the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area needs to integrate existing regional cooperation mechanisms. However, the “Asian noodle bowl” phenomenon in several free trade zone agreements in the region has caused chaos in economic and trade rules, and it is difficult to integrate and coordinate. The APEC Trade and Investment Commission (CTI) has established the APEC FTA database to publish the text, terms and open commitments of all FTA agreements signed by member states. The APEC Policy Support Unit publishes research reports on the APEC region. The FTA's openness and latest issues have been evaluated, and various rules and standards have become a practical difficulty in promoting further deep integration in the APEC region.

Third, the impact of policy changes in key powers.

The decisive influence of the United States on the Asia-Pacific region is self-evident. After Trump's election, the US foreign policy of strategic contraction and protectionism prevailed, and the process of promoting trade liberalization slowed down markedly; the US trade policy changed and announced the withdrawal of TPP, which made the previous two-track parallel of TPP and RCEP in the Asia-Pacific region unresolved. Existence brings great uncertainty to the prospects for integration in the Asia-Pacific region. How to adjust the US foreign trade policy and Asia-Pacific policy will continue to shift from multilateralism to bilateralism as Trump's campaign promises, and it will take time to observe. Perhaps after Trump's trip to Asia in November, it will gradually emerge.

In addition, reviewing the APEC summits, the important consensus, action plan and development strategy that have been reached are inseparable from the strong driving role of the host country, from the theme design, the consultation of senior officials to the ministerial meeting, the declaration of the informal meeting of leaders, nowhere. Does not reflect the dominant advantage of the host country. The host country of APEC in 2018 is Papua New Guinea. This country has never hosted an APEC meeting before. Therefore, the expectations for the outcome of the 2018 conference and the process will be slightly weaker. The APEC meeting in Chile in 2019 may become an important node for APEC to reach the Asia-Pacific FTA action plan by 2020. Let us wait and see.

Prospects for the outcome of the Vietnam Conference

APEC is still a regional cooperative organization that is in line with the fundamental development interests of the Asia-Pacific region. Trade and investment are the inexhaustible driving force for regional economic growth. APEC promotes inclusive development, taking into account the comfort of all parties, and renews its vitality and attractiveness in its continuous development. In 2017, the APEC Leaders Meeting and the Business and Industry Leaders Meeting in Vietnam will be held soon. “Creating a new impetus for the common future 310328, Funds” is the theme of this conference. There are many highlights that we deserve.

First, strengthening cooperation among SMEs and improving the innovation capability and trade participation of SMEs is one of the four core issues of local conferences. Through the implementation of inclusive global value chain development strategies, the development of supply chain funds, the promotion of APEC project support for SMEs, and the implementation of initiatives to strengthen SME cooperation. Actively promote cross-border e-commerce cooperation, accelerate the development framework of APEC cross-border e-commerce facilitation, accelerate the development of the Internet and digital economic roadmap, and be the key issue of the May Ministerial Conference of Trade, which was obtained by APEC member states. highly recognition.

Second, ensure food security and promote sustainable agricultural development. This is the second core issue of this conference and the key issue of the host country of Vietnam. Establishing and starting to implement the multi-year action plan of APEC's food security and climate change framework, implementing APEC to accelerate urban development and construction, ensuring the development framework for food security and growth, and promoting the transformation of development strategies into action plans are the key efforts of this meeting. .

Third, adhere to the promotion of regional economic integration (REI). Implement the "APEC Service Trade Competitiveness Line (2016-2025)" and actively cooperate with other multilateral international organizations; implement the "Global Value Chain Development Cooperation Strategy" to lay the foundation for sustainable, innovative and inclusive economic growth. This reflects the core concept of APEC on development issues, and will also be the future APEC has always advocated and adhered to the direction.

Fourth, promote the construction of interconnection. The Vietnam Conference will continue to implement the promotion of the supply chain framework action plan, and strive to establish clear targets, timetables, expected phased results and measurable quantitative indicators as early as possible, and establish a monitoring framework for the implementation of the action plan. Actively promote the use of global data standards in the supply chain, including food and agricultural products, and provide an important step in standard unification, policy coordination, and data sharing. In addition, Vietnam is also an active advocate in the mutual investment evaluation and capacity building of infrastructure investment and construction. It has played a goal of strengthening the interconnection of hardware, software and personnel by the APEC Interconnection Blueprint 2025. positive effect.

Author: assistant researcher Zhang Lin, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of World Economics and Politics

Social Science International Trade

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