2017 cotton spinning market is full of uncertainty? Industry authority
On March 27th, the 4th Executive Directors' Meeting of the China Cotton Textile Industry Association and the 2017 Cotton Textile Market Situation Analysis Meeting were held in Changzhou, Jiangsu. Xie Ming, President of Jiangsu Textile Industry Association, Vice President of China National Textile and Apparel Council, Duan Xiaoping, President of China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, Zhu Beina, President of China Cotton Textile Industry Association, Wang Shengmin, Deputy Director of Agricultural Products Price Department of National Development and Reform Commission Yu Xiaoxin, Director of the Public Inspection Department of China Fiber Inspection Bureau, Ye Qichun, Vice President of China Cotton Textile Industry Association, Zhu Jianjun, General Manager of Zhongheng Dayao Textile Technology Co., Ltd., Li Nan, General Manager of Cotton Department of Louis Dreyfus (China) Co., Ltd., and others Representatives of cotton textile enterprises attended the meeting.
Cotton textile industry
At this meeting, the guests discussed the current hot topics in the cotton textile industry, such as the domestic cotton textile market, the trend of foreign cotton market, and the change of cotton target price subsidy policy.
1. 2017 textile industry forecast
Duan Xiaoping, vice president of China Textile Industry Federation and president of China Chemical Fiber Industry Association: the signs of recovery in the textile industry are not obvious
In 2016, the economic benefits of the textile industry were steadily slowing down, the structural adjustment was obviously accelerated, the global layout trend was obvious, the domestic sales growth rate was basically flat, and the operational quality was improved. Duan Xiaoping said that at present, the signs of recovery in the textile industry are not obvious. In 2016, the operation of enterprises was not as good as statistics. It is still too early to say that “the industry is picking upâ€.
In 2017, the global economy is expected to grow, the prospects of advanced economies will improve, and emerging markets remain the core strength of economic growth, but market risks are also increasing. On the international front, various factors such as the US President Trump's New Deal, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, and European elections have made world trade growth extremely difficult. Compared with the international market, the domestic market is also the coexistence of opportunities and challenges, the acceleration of China's urbanization process, the liberalization of the second-child policy, the advancement of Internet convergence, and the potential of the light luxury market to promote China's domestic textile industry market. The expansion, and with the decline in the proportion of people's clothing expenditure, the deepening of rational consumption concepts, and people's pursuit of cost performance, the development of the textile industry is facing enormous challenges.
Duan Xiaoping predicted that in 2017, international demand is expected to pick up under the influence of the United States. In terms of domestic sales, Duan Xiaoping pointed out that macroeconomic stability and income growth will continue to expand domestic sales. If the consumption upgrade opportunities are grasped, the product side improves quality and costs are reduced, and the retail end meets the consumption experience, the domestic demand market can maintain a certain level of growth.
2. Analysis of domestic cotton textile market situation
Zhu Beina, President of China Cotton Textile Industry Association:
From adapting to the new normal to leading the new normal
Since the second half of last year, the cotton textile industry market is generally better than the same period in 2015, and the price of products has risen. However, this is not entirely driven by downstream demand. Enterprises should have a clear understanding. In the beginning of 2017, the cotton textile enterprises generally performed well, the product inventory level was low, the orders were sufficient, and the prosperity index rebounded.
The use of chemical fiber raw materials in the industry is becoming more and more extensive. Cotton textile enterprises are more enthusiastic about chemical fiber raw materials, richer in products and lower in risk. Confidence in the market has begun to pick up. With the reform of the cotton system and the promotion of high-levy and low-deduction reforms, factors such as the steady narrowing of the price gap between domestic and foreign cotton have played a supporting role in the improvement of domestic cotton textile enterprises. At present, Xinjiang's investment is still growing, and the pace of enterprises going out is steadily progressing. Industry transfer and investment tend to be rational, and the market's dominance is getting stronger.
In the case of various unfavorable factors in the market, the company actively responded to the “three products†strategy and actively adapted to the new normal. In the process of expanding profit margins, from pursuing speed to pursuing quality, from compressing cost to innovation development, focusing on development. Speed ​​to focus on improving the added value of products, it can be said that at present, enterprises have begun to lead the new normal.
Ye Haochun, Vice President of China Cotton Textile Industry Association:
The domestic cotton yarn market is gradually becoming more competitive
According to the statistics of China Cotton Textile Industry Association and China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, cotton fiber for cotton textiles was 7.15 million tons in 2016, up 6% year-on-year; non-cotton fiber (including polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber) was 12.63 million tons, an increase over the same period of last year. 0.2%; a total of 19.78 million tons, an increase of 2.2%; cotton fiber accounted for 36%, yarn production was 18.84 million tons.
Since the release of the reserve cotton release announcement in April 2016, cotton prices at home and abroad have gradually merged. After the end of the reserve cotton at the end of September, the domestic and international cotton price spreads in October have once again widened to around 2,000 yuan/ton. At present, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton is around 1,000 yuan / ton. With the start of reserve cotton production, affected by the round-off pricing mechanism, the cotton price difference between domestic and foreign is expected to further narrow.
On March 6th, the reserve cotton began to be put into operation. With the launching work, the textile enterprises slowed down the pace of bidding. The average daily trading volume and transaction price of the reserve cotton continued to fall. The round-off transaction price has been lowered, which has affected the spot market. The sales are sluggish and the price is lowered by 100-200 yuan/ton. At present, the pick-up price of the “double 29†hand-picked cotton platform in Xinjiang is around 16,000 yuan/ton, but the quality is high. Cotton prices remain firm. Futures, spot, and turn-off prices affect each other, and downstream support is insufficient. Enterprises have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and cotton quality is good, and prices still have great advantages.
In 2016, affected by factors such as tightening quotas, shrinking cotton price gaps at home and abroad, and stockpiling of reserve cotton, China imported 896,600 tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of 575,900 tons, a decrease of 39.11%. In 2017, with the increase in quotas issued by the Ministry of State and the narrowing of the spread between domestic and foreign cotton, it is expected that cotton imports will not change much in 2016 compared with 2016. It is expected that cotton use will increase, but the increase is limited. The import of cotton yarn has a great relationship with the import of cotton. At present, the import volume of cotton yarn in China is also decreasing. With the narrowing of the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton, the price advantage of imported yarn will be weakened, and the competitive advantage of domestic cotton yarn will gradually increase.
3. How does the cotton target price subsidy change?
Wang Shengmin, deputy director of the Agricultural Products Price Department of the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission:
Target price subsidy policy is continuously optimized
China's cotton target price reform pilot work was completed in 2016. This pilot policy guarantees the basic benefits of cotton farmers and plays a very good role in the supply testing reform, which makes China's cotton production gather in Xinjiang and cotton develops towards high quality and competitive prices. . In the third year of 2016, the pilot was over. During the evaluation of the cotton target price reform pilot, some problems were also found. For example, the price was fixed for a year, and the adjustment was too frequent. The cotton subsidy method still has unscientific places, how do you need to change it? The next cotton target price subsidy should be linked to the quality of cotton.
Wang Shengmin said that on March 17, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued the "Notice on Deepening Cotton Target Price Reform", which made some adjustments to the cotton target price reform, including the target price of subsidies must have changed in the previous year. 3 years must be, the cotton target price level is determined according to the production cost plus reasonable income in the past 3 years, adjust and optimize the subsidy method, and limit the amount of cotton that enjoys the target price subsidy in Xinjiang. The upper limit of the subsidy is the base period (2012-2014). 85% of the average production.
In the next step, the cotton target price subsidy is intended to study the reform of the cotton subsidy policy in the Mainland and appropriate subsidies for the cultivation of cotton in the Mainland. Implement Xinjiang policies, test results, track in time, and allow local governments to conduct cotton price subsidy testing.
Yu Xiaoxin, Director of the Public Inspection Department of China Fiber Inspection Bureau:
China's cotton quality has improved significantly
From 2011 to 2016, the average length of Xinjiang cotton public inspection was 28.78mm, 28.53mm, 28.70mm, 28.71mm, 28.56mm, 29.05mm. The micronaire value of cotton in Xinjiang is increasing year by year, reflecting the gradual thickening of cotton fibers. Other inspection indicators, such as color grade, are superior to the Mainland.
It can be seen that during the period of cotton storage and storage, the length of cotton decreased significantly, and after the implementation of the cotton target price reform policy, the quality of cotton in Xinjiang increased significantly (in 2015, due to weather, the length declined). Among them, the average cotton length in 2016 is the best in recent years. In 2016, the proportion of cotton lengths of 30mm and above reached 11.59%, and in 2011-2015, cotton length reached 30mm and above. Only 5% more than the highest year.
According to Yu Xiaoxin, the factors affecting cotton quality are first of all policy factors and have a guiding effect on cotton quality. Second is the impact of climate, again the impact of cotton varieties and planting factors, and finally the impact of cotton processing methods. In particular, he pointed out that at present, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps has about 70% of the machine-made cotton. There is a big difference between the method of planting cotton and the method of hand-picked cotton, but there is no obvious difference in the processing method. Big.
Yu Xiaoxin suggested to continue to deepen the target price change of cotton, continue to guide cotton to pay equal attention to quality, quantity and quality, implement price and complement separation, and guide cotton production with the demand of textile enterprises. Strengthen cotton variety management and scale planting to improve cotton uniformity and consistency. Use the cotton planting and processing methods matched with the machine for cotton picking to improve the overall quality of cotton.
Yu Xiaoxin, Director of the Public Inspection Department of China Fiber Inspection Bureau:
Guarantee the speed of public inspection of this year's reserve cotton
Reserve cotton rotation: The inspection of reserve cotton for bags has been welcomed by textile companies. There are only two complaints about quality complaints from the 2016 reserve cotton round. In this year's rotation, in order to avoid the shortage of supply, from October 2016, China Fiber Inspection Bureau began the 2017 reserve cotton inspection work, so this year's reserve cotton round, according to the current rhythm, China fiber inspection The bureau can guarantee the speed of the public inspection and ensure that the cotton photographed by the company can be released as soon as possible.
Sun Yingan, Chairman of Hubei Xiaomian Industrial Group Co., Ltd.
Recommended cost of reserve cotton
Sun Yingan introduced that Xiaomian Company mainly produces 5 to 100 pieces of pure cotton yarn. Every year, the company needs a large amount of reserve cotton, and 80% of the company's raw materials are sourced from reserve cotton. Last year, the way in which the reserve cotton was rotated to carry out the bag inspection did ensure the quality of the reserve cotton that the company bought. This is very satisfactory.
Sun Yingan said that the work of reserve cotton rotation has been continuously improved. However, personally, the price of reserve cotton is slightly higher at 45 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to reduce the cost of reserve cotton.
5. Domestic cotton market demand forecast
Li Nan, General Manager of Cotton Department of Louis Dreyfus (China) Co., Ltd.:
World cotton transitions from overproduction to production and sales gap
The world cotton industry has reached a point of change. The world cotton area has dropped from 36.11 million hectares in 2011/2012 to 29.31 million hectares in 2016/2017, down 20%. The low price is already cotton consumption from 2011/2012. 22.7 million tons rose to 24.5 million tons in 2016/2017, an increase of 8%. Overproduction and sales have become a gap in production and sales. By the end of the year, world end-of-year stocks fell from 24.4 million tons recorded in 2014/2015 to 19.6 million tons, down 20%. At present, the world's cotton consumption is 8% more than the output, but the growth is slow. Two-thirds of the world's polyester production capacity is in China, and the price is only half of that of cotton. The use of chemical fiber in China's textile production has increased, and the world cotton consumption has gradually recovered to 24 million tons. The world cotton production is only 22 million tons. China's cotton policy has had a huge impact on consumption, and world cotton consumption has grown slowly.
Looking forward to 2016/2017, world cotton consumption should once again exceed production, world cotton consumption is expected to increase by 2 to 3%, China's low-price reserve cotton rotation should promote consumption, world end-of-year inventory is expected to fall 1.5 million to 1.7 million Ton. It is estimated that China's future cotton production and sales gap will be around 3 million tons, and the national reserve cotton may reach an ideal low level in 2018/2019. Assuming that it is in the range of 260-3.3 million tons, the reserve can not meet the production and sales gap, and can only increase production or Import to solve.
6. 2017 hot fabric forecast
Zhu Jianjun, General Manager of Zhongheng Dayao Textile Technology Co., Ltd.:
Downstream demand determines upstream production strategy
Zhu Jianjun analyzed the characteristics of the downstream market of cotton textile industry - yarn and cloth products. He said: "In 2017/2018, the trend of cotton fiber woven products will be smaller and smaller, cotton blended with all fibers, almost no cloth. Bomb, super-elastic, super-soft is the biggest demand. The yarn should be able to be black and white, that is, it can be dyed black, and it can also be bleached." He predicted that in 2017/2018, special coated cloth, double layer Cloth, four-sided elastic cloth, high-elastic twill, jacquard, hollow cloth, single-sided dyed cloth, glitter fabric, etc. will become the popular trend of textile and apparel fabrics.
Zhu Jianjun believes that a good company has several characteristics, such as good raw materials, good products, and innovative models. The good products made by the products have the characteristics of good quality consistency, good supply continuity and fast product update. To do a good job, first of all, the raw materials should be stable, otherwise the order will be easily lost, and the characteristics and main features will be made. Otherwise, a large amount of inventory will be easy to appear. The price of finished products for research and development of new products should pay attention to cost performance and avoid excessive "quality".
In addition, the meeting reviewed and approved the changes in the governing units and member units of the China Cotton Textile Industry Association.
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